Ligue 1 | Gameweek 14
Dec 2, 2023 at 4pm UK
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens3 - 2Lyon
We said: Lens 1-0 Lyon
As bad as it was for them at Arsenal this week, Lens have shown the ability to pick themselves up after a disappointing result, while their defensive shape has improved tremendously versus French opponents. There have been a few positive takeaways for Lyon in recent matches, but not enough for us to believe their attacking quality has improved, with Les Gones tied for the fewest goals scored in Ligue 1 to date (nine). Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 25.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Lyon win was 0-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lens | Draw | Lyon |
49.98% ( 0.04) | 24.68% ( -0.01) | 25.34% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 53.16% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.88% ( 0) | 49.11% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.81% ( 0) | 71.18% ( -0) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.33% ( 0.02) | 19.67% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.34% ( 0.03) | 51.65% ( -0.03) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.17% ( -0.03) | 33.82% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.51% ( -0.03) | 70.49% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
Lens 49.97%
Lyon 25.34%
Draw 24.67%
| Lens | Draw | Lyon |
| 1-0 @ 10.81% 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.8% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.8% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.1% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0)Other @ 2.91% Total : 49.97% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.65% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.67% | 0-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.3% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 2.28% Total : 25.34% |
How you voted: Lens vs Lyon
Lens
73.1%Draw
19.2%Lyon
7.7%26
Head to Head
Feb 12, 2023 7.45pm
Oct 2, 2022 7.45pm
Feb 19, 2022 4pm
Oct 30, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 12
Lyon
2-1
Lens
Apr 3, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 31
Lens
1-1
Lyon
Form Guide
