Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28

Apr 5, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille
3 - 1
Marseille

David (54' pen.), Cabella (71'), Gudmundsson (84')
Santos (21')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Ismaily (81')
Harit (27'), Gigot (52'), Merlin (57'), Kondogbia (70'), Balerdi (77'), Veretout (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lille 2-1 Lens
Friday, March 29 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Marseille 0-2 PSG
Sunday, March 31 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

No longer enjoying Gasset's new manager bounce and still working with a ravaged set of defensive options, another dismal weekend awaits the Marseille faithful, whose 10-hour journey to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy will likely go unrewarded. Visiting a ground where Lille are hardly ever outclassed and have not failed to score in over a year, the stage is set for Gasset's men to suffer a fourth straight defeat, as Les Dogues enhance their European credentials at the expense of their visitors' top-six hopes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 53.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 22.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Marseille win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
Lille	Draw	Marseille
53.77% ( 0.13)	23.54% ( 0.04)	22.69% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 53.83% (

-0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.2% (

-0.33)

46.8% (

0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.94% (

-0.31)

69.06% (

0.31)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.67% (

-0.07)

17.33% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.3% (

-0.13)

47.7% (

0.13)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.12% (

-0.33)

34.88% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.38% (

-0.35)

71.62% (

0.35)

Score Analysis

Lille 53.77%

Marseille 22.69%

Draw 23.53%

Lille	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.43% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.76% Total : 53.77%	1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.53%	0-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.05% Total : 22.69%