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Ligue 1
Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28
Apr 5, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Marseille

Lille
3 - 1
Marseille

David (54' pen.), Cabella (71'), Gudmundsson (84')
Santos (21')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Ismaily (81')
Harit (27'), Gigot (52'), Merlin (57'), Kondogbia (70'), Balerdi (77'), Veretout (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lille 2-1 Lens
Friday, March 29 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 0-2 PSG
Sunday, March 31 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lille 2-0 Marseille

 No longer enjoying Gasset's new manager bounce and still working with a ravaged set of defensive options, another dismal weekend awaits the Marseille faithful, whose 10-hour journey to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy will likely go unrewarded. Visiting a ground where Lille are hardly ever outclassed and have not failed to score in over a year, the stage is set for Gasset's men to suffer a fourth straight defeat, as Les Dogues enhance their European credentials at the expense of their visitors' top-six hopes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 53.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 22.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Marseille win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
LilleDrawMarseille
53.77% (0.126 0.13) 23.54% (0.036000000000001 0.04) 22.69% (-0.161 -0.16)
Both teams to score 53.83% (-0.32599999999999 -0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.2% (-0.331 -0.33)46.8% (0.331 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.94% (-0.31 -0.31)69.06% (0.31100000000001 0.31)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.67% (-0.074999999999989 -0.07)17.33% (0.074999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.3% (-0.133 -0.13)47.7% (0.133 0.13)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.12% (-0.33499999999999 -0.33)34.88% (0.334 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.38% (-0.354 -0.35)71.62% (0.354 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Lille 53.77%
    Marseille 22.69%
    Draw 23.53%
LilleDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 10.59% (0.12 0.12)
2-1 @ 9.78% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-0 @ 9.29% (0.083 0.08)
3-1 @ 5.72% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.43% (0.035 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.01% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.5% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.38% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.32% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 3.76%
Total : 53.77%
1-1 @ 11.15% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 6.04% (0.083 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.047 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.06% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 23.53%
0-1 @ 6.37% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 5.88% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-2 @ 3.35% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.06% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.81% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.18% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 22.69%

How you voted: Lille vs Marseille

Lille
71.9%
Draw
16.3%
Marseille
11.9%
135
Head to Head
Nov 4, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 11
Marseille
0-0
Lille
Harit (42'), Gigot (53')
Andre (27'), Bentaleb (70'), Yazici (73')
> Preview
May 20, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 36
Lille
2-1
Marseille
David (50' pen.), Bamba (72')
Andre (57'), Bamba (73'), Bayo (85')
Clauss (29')
Balerdi (37'), Rongier (55')
> Preview
Sep 10, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 7
Marseille
2-1
Lille
Sanchez (26'), Gigot (61')
Ismaily (12')
> Preview
Jan 16, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 21
Marseille
1-1
Lille
Under (75')
Guendouzi (4')
Botman (15')
Andre (30'), Grbic (55'), Celik (55'), Lihadji (86')
Andre (32')
> Preview
Oct 3, 2021 4pm
Gameweek 9
Lille
2-0
Marseille
David (28', 90+4')
Mandava (11'), Yilmaz (66')

Under (24'), Balerdi (37')
Under (77')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG15114040122837
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1593324121230
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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