UEFA Conference League

Europa Conference League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 14, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille
1 - 1
Sturm Graz

(Lille win 4-1 on aggregate)

Santos (43')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Biereth (45+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Lille and Sturm Graz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Lille 2-2 Rennes
Sunday, March 10 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sturm Graz

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Hartberg 1-1 Sturm Graz
Sunday, March 10 at 4pm in Austrian Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Lille 2-0 Sturm Graz (Lille win 5-0 on aggregate)

Lille have one foot in the quarter-finals following the first leg but may also have one eye on Sunday's Ligue 1 clash with Brest, meaning that Les Dogues must warn against complacency on Thursday. Sturm Graz will travel to Decathlon Arena in hope more than expectation for this second-leg contest, and we believe that the Austrians will quietly bow out of Europe in Northern France. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 56.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 19.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.47%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.

Result
Lille	Draw	Sturm Graz
56.5% ( 0.47)	23.53% ( -0.22)	19.96% ( -0.25)

Both teams to score 50.01% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.03% (

0.56)

49.97% (

-0.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.05% (

0.5)

71.95% (

-0.5)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.51% (

0.38)

17.49% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.02% (

0.66)

47.98% (

-0.65)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.61% (

0.05)

39.38% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.92% (

0.05)

76.08% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Lille 56.5%

Sturm Graz 19.96%

Draw 23.53%

Lille	Draw	Sturm Graz
1-0 @ 12% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 10.47% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 5.67% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.47% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.67% Total : 56.5%	1-1 @ 11.19% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.89% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.91% Total : 23.53%	0-1 @ 6.42% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.38% Total : 19.96%