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Europa League
Villarreal logo
Europa League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 14, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Estadio de la Ceramica
Marseille

Villarreal
3 - 1
Marseille

Capoue (32'), Sorloth (54'), Mosquera (85')
Marcelino (19'), Coquelin (19'), Baena (90+2'), Mosquera (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Clauss (90+4')
Sarr (18'), Ounahi (48'), Merlin (69'), Kondogbia (84'), Lopez (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Villarreal and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Betis 2-3 Villarreal
Sunday, March 10 at 8pm in La Liga

Marseille

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Nantes
Sunday, March 10 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Villarreal 2-1 Marseille (Marseille to win 5-2 on aggregate)

 Villarreal tend to enjoy themselves in Europa League home matches, but while we think that they will do enough to claim a second-leg victory, we do not expect the Yellow Submarine to overturn the four-goal deficit from the first leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.

Result
VillarrealDrawMarseille
41.23% (0.079999999999998 0.08) 24.59% (0.012 0.01) 34.18% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09)
Both teams to score 58.8% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.87% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)44.13% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.49% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)66.51% (0.081999999999994 0.08)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.55% (0.0040000000000049 0)21.45% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.52% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)54.47% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.87% (-0.091000000000008 -0.09)25.13% (0.092000000000002 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.16% (-0.127 -0.13)59.84% (0.128 0.13)
Score Analysis
    Villarreal 41.23%
    Marseille 34.18%
    Draw 24.59%
VillarrealDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 8.82% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.3% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 6.39% (0.024 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.53% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-0 @ 3.28% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.13% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 1.74% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.26% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.2% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 41.23%
1-1 @ 11.46% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.09% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.39% (0.019 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.44% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 24.59%
1-2 @ 7.91% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.45% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.14% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.64% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.8% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.37% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.26% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-4 @ 0.97% (-0.007 -0.01)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 34.18%

How you voted: Villarreal vs Marseille

Villarreal
53.8%
Draw
16.6%
Marseille
29.7%
145
Head to Head
Mar 7, 2024 8pm
Round of 16 1st Leg
Marseille
4-0
Villarreal
Veretout (23'), Mosquera (28' og.), Aubameyang (42' pen., 59')
Merlin (13')

Mandi (9'), Comesana (45+1'), Moreno (52'), Cuenca (72')
Moreno (62')
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