Ligue 1 | Gameweek 19
Jan 15, 2023 at 12pm UK
Stade Lille-Metropole
Lille5 - 1Troyes
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Brest 0-0 Lille
Wednesday, January 11 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Wednesday, January 11 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Troyes 0-2 Marseille
Wednesday, January 11 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Wednesday, January 11 at 8pm in Ligue 1
We said: Lille 2-1 Troyes
Despite the difference in league positions, Lille have netted just one more goal than their opponents this season, something which may indicate that a close match could materialise. Nevertheless, we are still backing the home side to edge this game, potentially by the odd goal in three courtesy of their superior defensive record. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 68.01%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 13.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.99%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Troyes |
68.01% ( -0.8) | 18.93% ( 0.42) | 13.06% ( 0.38) |
| Both teams to score 49.83% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.5% ( -1.02) | 42.5% ( 1.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.1% ( -1.03) | 64.9% ( 1.03) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.52% ( -0.5) | 11.48% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 63.67% ( -1.09) | 36.33% ( 1.09) |
| Troyes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.29% ( -0.05) | 43.71% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 20.12% ( -0.05) | 79.88% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
Lille 68%
Troyes 13.06%
Draw 18.93%
| Lille | Draw | Troyes |
| 2-0 @ 11.75% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.28)2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 8.48% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 3.8% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.99% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.67% Total : 68% | 1-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.9% Total : 18.93% | 0-1 @ 4.15% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 3.72% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.11% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.33% Total : 13.06% |
How you voted: Lille vs Troyes
Lille
76.9%Draw
19.2%Troyes
3.8%26
