Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 86.96%. A draw had a probability of 9% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 4.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.89%) and 4-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.2%), while for a Troyes win it was 1-2 (1.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
Result | ||
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Troyes |
86.96% ( 1.15) | 8.96% ( -0.76) | 4.07% ( -0.38) |
Both teams to score 44.85% ( 0.61) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.46% ( 2.27) | 25.54% ( -2.27) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.38% ( 2.88) | 45.62% ( -2.88) |
Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
96.15% ( 0.56) | 3.85% ( -0.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
83.61% ( 1.77) | 16.39% ( -1.77) |
Troyes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.65% ( 0.36) | 53.35% ( -0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.13% ( 0.23) | 86.87% ( -0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Troyes |
3-0 @ 11.82% ( -0.18) 2-0 @ 10.89% ( -0.64) 4-0 @ 9.63% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 7.43% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.32) 1-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.7) 5-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.42) 4-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.23) 5-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.3) 6-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.36) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.02) 6-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.25) 4-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.09) 7-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.23) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.11) 7-1 @ 1% ( 0.15) Other @ 3.77% Total : 86.95% | 1-1 @ 4.2% ( -0.39) 2-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.31) Other @ 0.56% Total : 8.96% | 1-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.18) Other @ 1.46% Total : 4.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 16 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
3 | Marseille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 13 |
4 | Reims | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 11 |
5 | Lille | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
6 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
7 | NantesNantes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
8 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
10 | Rennes | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
11 | Lyon | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 |
12 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
13 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
14 | Le HavreLe Havre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
16 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
17 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 |
18 | Angers | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |