Ligue 1 | Gameweek 21
Feb 1, 2023 at 6pm UK
La Beaujoire-Louis Fonteneau
Nantes0 - 2Marseille
We said: Nantes 0-1 Marseille
Nantes continued their perfect defensive record in 2023 on the weekend with a stalemate at Clermont Foot, but now face a Marseille team who have scored in each of their last 12 matches in all competitions. Tudor's side know that they cannot afford to drop points in successive fixtures if they are to challenge PSG and Lens for the title this season, and we expect them to earn maximum points at Stade de la Beaujoire on Wednesday night. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 55.4%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 21.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a Nantes win it was 1-0 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nantes | Draw | Marseille |
21.03% ( 0.43) | 23.57% ( 0.36) | 55.4% ( -0.79) |
| Both teams to score 51.49% ( -0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.19% ( -0.95) | 48.81% ( 0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.09% ( -0.87) | 70.9% ( 0.87) |
| Nantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.39% ( -0.1) | 37.61% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.61% ( -0.1) | 74.39% ( 0.1) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.53% ( -0.63) | 17.47% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 52.05% ( -1.1) | 47.94% ( 1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
Nantes 21.03%
Marseille 55.4%
Draw 23.56%
| Nantes | Draw | Marseille |
| 1-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.61% Total : 21.03% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.1% Total : 23.56% | 0-1 @ 11.46% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 10% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 5.82% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 5.69% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 2.54% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2.48% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.64% Total : 55.4% |
How you voted: Nantes vs Marseille
Nantes
13.6%Draw
15.9%Marseille
70.5%88
