Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 61.4%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Caen had a probability of 16.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.39%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Caen win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.