Swedish champions Malmo continue their campaign to reach the Champions League group stage for the first time in six years on Wednesday, as they host Nordic neighbours HJK Helsinki at Eleda Stadion.
Both clubs currently top their domestic leagues in defence of their respective titles and made it safely through the first qualifying round earlier this month.
Match preview
© Reuters
After squeezing through the first stage of the qualification process with a 2-1 aggregate victory over Latvia's Riga FC, Allsvenskan leaders Malmo will hope to transfer their league form of the past fortnight into their second round tie against more challenging opponents.
Having won their two most recent games in the Swedish top flight by a cumulative scoreline of 9-0 - making short work of both Sirius and Degerfors - now Jon Dahl Tomasson's side resume a continental campaign which nearly fell at the first hurdle.
Despite playing with an extra man for the second half of their first-leg win against Riga, Malmo could only take a one-goal lead to the Latvian capital last week, where they were held to a 1-1 draw - with Ivan Paurevic's 57th-minute equaliser for the hosts ensuring a nervous final half-hour.
Nonetheless, Di Blae top the Allsvenskan by a margin of four points ahead of Elfsborg - though third-placed Stockholm side Djurgarden still have two games in hand - and have out-scored all their rivals by at least 11 goals throughout the first 12 rounds of the season.
A scorer in Riga and at the weekend, Croatian striker Antonio Colak tops the goal charts for Malmo with seven league goals so far, while club captain Anders Christiansen has returned in fine form after taking part in Denmark's emotional journey to the Euro 2020 semi-finals.
Former Milan striker Tomasson, who did not fare well during his introduction to top-tier coaching while in the Netherlands, certainly knew the way to goal himself, and now his team are on course for back-to-back titles under his leadership - with European progress representing the logical next step.
HJK could provide a considerable obstacle for Malmo to clear though, as they serenely sailed through to this stage thanks to completing a 7-1 aggregate victory over Buducnost Podgorica of Montenegro last week - keeping dreams alive of reaching the Champions League proper.
However, the Helsinki-based club have made it all the way to the group stage only once before, when they competed alongside PSV, Benfica and surprise Bundesliga winners Kaiserslautern during the 1998-99 season. Since then, the Finns have never managed to go further than the third round of qualifying.
Their recent European exertions perhaps caused the Veikkausliiga leaders to take their eye off the ball domestically on Saturday, as they slipped to a first league defeat of the season; going down 2-1 away to struggling Oulu, who had previously won just one game this term. Toni Koskela's men remain six points clear at the top though, with a healthy goal tally being provided from several quarters of the team.
Experienced forwards Roope Riski and Filip Valencic both have four league goals so far and bagged three and two respectively across the two legs with Buducnost, so should pose a significant threat to the sometimes insecure Malmo defence on Wednesday.
Should they manage to turn over their regional rivals over the course of the next week, HJK will face Scottish champions Rangers following Monday's draw at UEFA headquarters in Nyon, but must remain fully focused on the tough task at hand this week.
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
Team News
Though young Sebastian Nanasi started for Malmo in the previous round - in the absence of long-term injury victim Ola Toivonen and Anders Christiansen, who was still on duty with Denmark - the latter is expected to be the man chosen to provide support for striker Antonio Colak on Wednesday.
Norwegian forward Jo Inge Berget has been absent through injury for the past couple of games so remains doubtful for Jon Dahl Tomasson's side, who are set to start in their recently favoured 4-2-3-1 formation.
In the hosts' back four, central defender Anel Ahmedhodzic has apparently drawn admiring glances from several top Serie A teams, including Napoli and Milan. The Bosnia international returned to the club in January after spending brief spells at Nottingham Forest and Denmark's Hobro, and will join either Lasse Nielsen or Franz Brorsson at the heart of the defence.
HJK, meanwhile, are still without their centre-back Igor Cukovic, who suffered an ACL injury in the spring and will not return for some time yet. In his absence, Finland defender Daniel O'Shaughnessy - who started each of his nation's three Euros group games last month - will lead the visitors' rearguard effort.
Up front, attacking midfielder Atomu Tanaka - now in his second spell at the club - could link up with Roope Riski, who scored in both legs of the first qualifying round.
Malmo possible starting lineup:
Dahlin; Larsson, Ahmedhodzic, Brorsson, Knudsen; Lewicki, Innocent; Nalic, Christiansen, Birmancevic; Colak
HJK Helsinki possible starting lineup:
Tannander; Moren, Tenho, O'Shaughnessy, Murillo; Jair, Lingman; Browne, Tanaka, Valencic, Riski
We say: Malmo 2-1 HJK Helsinki
Both sides know their way around the opposition penalty area, having started their respective seasons with a flurry of goals, so there is likely to be no shortage of action on Wednesday night.
Malmo are set to take a slim lead to Helsinki for next week's return, but conceding a first-leg goal should prove less of a concern now that the divisive away goals rule has been summarily scrapped.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 45.46%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.
