Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.