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FC Cincinnati
Major League Soccer
Mar 9, 2025 at 12.30am UK
TQL Stadium
Toronto FC

Cincinnati
2 - 0
Toronto

Denkey (73' pen.), Kubo (87')
Evander (66'), Powell (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Thompson (50')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between FC Cincinnati and Toronto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cincinnati 1-1 Tigres
Tuesday, March 4 at 11.30pm in CONCACAF Champions League
Last Game: Orlando City 4-2 Toronto
Sunday, March 2 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: FC Cincinnati 3-2 Toronto

Three or more goals have been scored in three of the last four meetings between these two teams, but we trust the Orange and Blue can shut the door when needed. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 62.11%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 17.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (4.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for FC Cincinnati in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for FC Cincinnati.

Result
FC CincinnatiDrawToronto
62.11% (-0.355 -0.36) 20.77% (0.087 0.09) 17.12% (0.268 0.27)
Both teams to score 53.71% (0.27 0.27)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.55% (0.079999999999998 0.08)42.45% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.14% (0.078000000000003 0.08)64.86% (-0.079000000000008 -0.08)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.88% (-0.078999999999994 -0.08)13.12% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.24% (-0.162 -0.16)39.76% (0.162 0.16)
Toronto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.82% (0.368 0.37)38.18% (-0.367 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.06% (0.354 0.35)74.94% (-0.35300000000001 -0.35)
Score Analysis
    FC Cincinnati 62.11%
    Toronto 17.12%
    Draw 20.77%
FC CincinnatiDrawToronto
2-0 @ 10.33% (-0.1 -0.1)
1-0 @ 10.17% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-1 @ 9.95% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
3-0 @ 7% (-0.088 -0.09)
3-1 @ 6.74% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
4-0 @ 3.55% (-0.056 -0.06)
4-1 @ 3.42% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.24% (0.025 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.65% (0.008 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.44% (-0.027 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1.39% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 62.11%
1-1 @ 9.8% (0.034000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 5.01% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.79% (0.05 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.04% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 20.77%
0-1 @ 4.82% (0.031 0.03)
1-2 @ 4.72% (0.064 0.06)
0-2 @ 2.32% (0.038 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.54% (0.031 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.51% (0.035 0.03)
Other @ 2.21%
Total : 17.12%

How you voted: Cincinnati vs Toronto

FC Cincinnati
50.0%
Draw
50.0%
Toronto
0.0%
8
Head to Head
May 26, 2024 12.30am
Toronto
3-4
Cincinnati
Flores (25'), Murphy (63' og.), Insigne (85' pen.)
Flores (33'), Longstaff (60'), Long (78'), Insigne (90+8')
Orellano (53', 79'), Kelsy (55'), Santos (90+3')
Orellano (60'), Robinson (83'), Kelsy (90+10')
Feb 25, 2024 7.30pm
Oct 1, 2023 12.30am
Toronto
2-3
Cincinnati
Osorio (39', 44')
Antonoglou (74'), Osei Owusu (84')
Vazquez (28', 35'), Boupendza (72')
Jun 22, 2023 12.30am
Cincinnati
3-0
Toronto
Arias (35'), Acosta (54'), Badji (63')
Nwobodo (19'), Gaddis (41'), Halsey (82')

Petretta (25'), Bernardeschi (41')
May 5, 2022 12.30am
Cincinnati
2-0
Toronto
Harris (2'), Acosta (57' pen.)
Nwobodo (59'), Blackett (75'), Barreal (88')

Nelson (12')
Priso-Mbongue (6')
rhs 2.0
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