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Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer
Mar 2, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Subaru Park
FC Cincinnati

Philadelphia
4 - 1
Cincinnati

Baribo (6', 30', 52'), Damiani (90+3')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Evander (58')
Nwobodo (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Orlando City 2-4 Philadelphia
Sunday, February 23 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-1 Motagua
Wednesday, February 26 at 11.30pm in CONCACAF Champions League

We said: Philadelphia Union 1-2 FC Cincinnati

Philadelphia Union will look to build on their impressive opening win, but FC Cincinnati's strong form and superior head-to-head record give them the edge. We expect a tight contest, with both sides posing a threat in attack – however, Cincy's resilience and momentum could see them snatch a narrow win here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 37.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.31%) and 0-2 (5.58%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.

Result
Philadelphia UnionDrawFC Cincinnati
37.64% (-0.131 -0.13) 24.13% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02) 38.23% (0.153 0.15)
Both teams to score 61% (0.068000000000005 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.52% (0.088000000000001 0.09)41.48% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.12% (0.089999999999996 0.09)63.88% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.96% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)22.04% (0.029999999999998 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.62% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)55.38% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.25% (0.117 0.12)21.75% (-0.112 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.07% (0.174 0.17)54.93% (-0.169 -0.17)
Score Analysis
    Philadelphia Union 37.64%
    FC Cincinnati 38.23%
    Draw 24.13%
Philadelphia UnionDrawFC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 8.36% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
1-0 @ 7.25% (-0.035 -0.04)
2-0 @ 5.48% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.22% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.22% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 2.76% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.59% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.22% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 1.05% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 37.64%
1-1 @ 11.06% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.38% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.8% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.64% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 24.13%
1-2 @ 8.44% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-1 @ 7.31% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 5.58% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
1-3 @ 4.29% (0.024 0.02)
2-3 @ 3.24% (0.015 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.84% (0.018 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.64% (0.015 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.24% (0.01 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.08% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 38.23%

Head to Head
Oct 19, 2024 11pm
Philadelphia
1-2
Cincinnati
Sullivan (2')
Baribo (59'), Elliott (66'), Wagner (80')
Rodrigo Asad (45+4'), Glesnes (46' og.)
Nwobodo (64'), Rodrigo Asad (68'), Orellano (80')
Aug 14, 2024 12.30am
Round of 16
Cincinnati
2-4
Philadelphia
Bucha (66'), Yedlin (80')
Robinson (43')
Uhre (52'), Baribo (61', 81'), Sullivan (84')
Wagner (90+2')
Jun 20, 2024 12.45am
Cincinnati
4-3
Philadelphia
Kelsy (29'), Acosta (49' pen., 90+10'), Orellano (60')
Keller (6')
Baribo (43', 90+1'), Bueno (55')
Wagner (12'), Elliott (12'), McGlynn (81')
Nov 26, 2023 1am
Sep 17, 2023 12.30am
Philadelphia
2-2
Cincinnati
Andres Martinez (23'), Gazdag (37' pen.)
Elliott (19'), Gazdag (21'), Lowe (42'), Carranza (63'), Wagner (74'), Baribo (85')
Elliott (90+4')
Boupendza (49'), Vazquez (76')
Miazga (18'), Celentano (35'), Mosquera (36'), Hagglund (45+4')
Mosquera (83')
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