Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 62.68%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 17.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.04%) and 1-0 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.92%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 1-2 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.