Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 50.42%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 26.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.
Result | ||
Portland Timbers | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
50.42% ( 0.04) | 22.78% ( -0.01) | 26.8% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 60.97% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.57% ( 0.03) | 39.43% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.23% ( 0.03) | 61.77% ( -0.03) |
Portland Timbers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.16% ( 0.02) | 15.83% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.98% ( 0.05) | 45.02% ( -0.05) |
San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.44% ( -0.01) | 27.55% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.93% ( -0.01) | 63.07% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Portland Timbers | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.04% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.41% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.7% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 3.68% Total : 50.42% | 1-1 @ 10.36% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.16% 0-0 @ 4.36% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0) Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.77% | 1-2 @ 6.68% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.62% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.87% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.65% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.87% Total : 26.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 29 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 63 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 29 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 50 | 37 | 13 | 55 |
3 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 53 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 43 |
5 | Orlando City | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 43 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 40 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 38 |
8 | Toronto | 30 | 11 | 3 | 16 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 36 |
9 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 33 |
10 | DC United | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 33 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 32 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 32 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 31 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 29 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 28 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 28 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 55 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 57 | 42 | 15 | 50 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 49 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 47 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 56 | 50 | 6 | 47 |
6 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 46 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 45 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 60 | 50 | 10 | 43 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 39 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 35 |
11 | Dallas | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 34 |
12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 31 |
13 | St Louis City | 29 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 28 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 29 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 18 |