Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 29.14% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | New York City FC |
44.81% ( 0.04) | 26.05% ( 0.01) | 29.14% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 51.81% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.72% ( -0.04) | 52.27% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.03% ( -0.04) | 73.97% ( 0.03) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.75% ( 0) | 23.25% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.83% ( 0) | 57.16% ( -0) |
New York City FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.5% ( -0.05) | 32.5% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.97% ( -0.06) | 69.03% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | New York City FC |
1-0 @ 11.02% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.4% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.47% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.6% 4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 2% Total : 44.81% | 1-1 @ 12.38% 0-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.04% | 0-1 @ 8.49% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.96% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0) Other @ 2.62% Total : 29.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |