Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 66.11%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Dorking Wanderers had a probability of 15.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.57%), while for a Dorking Wanderers win it was 1-2 (4.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.