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Aldershot Town
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Gateshead
Halifax Town
Hartlepool United
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Southend United
Sutton United
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Yeovil Town
Grimsby Town
National League | Gameweek 16
Nov 19, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
 
Southend United

Grimsby Town
1 - 0
Southend

Taylor (3')
McAtee (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ferguson (77'), Egbri (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's National League clash between Grimsby Town and Southend United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Grimsby Town play host to Southend United on Friday evening knowing that they will move joint-top of the National League standings with a victory. Meanwhile, 20th-placed Southend make the trip to Blundell Park looking for a second win in three games, a result which would move them clear of the bottom three.

Match preview

There was a time not so long ago when Grimsby appeared to be in cruise control at this level, collecting 25 points from a possible 30 from September 4 onwards. However, a 1-0 defeat at lowly Wealdstone upset the applecart at Blundell Park, and Paul Hurst's side have since lost three more matches in all competitions. As well as three successive setbacks in the National League, Grimsby also suffered a 1-0 defeat at home to Kidderminster Harriers in the FA Cup. Hurst has suggested that he has been unhappy with the performances of several players, demanding a response ahead of what feels like an important fixture. At a time when Grimsby have been competing at the right end of the table, Southend are battling to avoid a third successive relegation and even remain in existence. The appointment of club legend Kevin Maher has gone some way to lifting spirits at Roots Hall, but supporters remain pessimistic about a prolonged improved run. Some progress has been made in recent games, the 4-1 win over bottom-placed Dover Athletic an absolute necessity and Maher's men stayed competitive against Woking. Nevertheless, they are still just one point above the drop zone ahead of one of their toughest matches on paper, a less-than-ideal scenario when attempting to build momentum. Despite losing five of their seven away games this season, positives can be taken from shipping just 10 goals, the most recent 1-0 setback at high-flying Boreham Wood a consequence of being reduced to 10 men.
Grimsby Town National League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
Grimsby Town form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
Southend United National League form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
Southend United form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

Team News

Hurst must decide whether to give another opportunity to young winger Evan Khouri or hand a recall to Will Bapaga. The experienced Giles Coke may come back into the midfield, potentially as a replacement for Ben Fox. Ryan Taylor is expected to get the nod over Lenell John-Lewis in attack. Abu Ogogo remained as an unused substitute last time out, but the midfielder will be considered for a recall on Friday. Nathan Ralph is an alternative to Jack Bridge, but the rest of the side could stay the same. Grimsby Town possible starting lineup: McKeown; Efete, Waterfall, Towler, Revan; Coke, Hunt; Sousa, Clifton, Khouri; Taylor Southend United possible starting lineup: Arnold; Dimitriou, White, Hobson, Lopata; Brunt, Dunne, Phillips, Bridge; Dalby, Murphy

We said: Grimsby Town 3-1 Southend United

Given the form of their hosts, Southend will be confidence of causing an upset on the East Coast. However, we can only back the Mariners to return to winning ways, inflicting more misery on opponents who are under pressure to move clear of the drop zone.
Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 53.64%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Southend United had a probability of 21.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Southend United win it was 0-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Grimsby Town in this match.

Result
Grimsby TownDrawSouthend United
53.64%25.22%21.15%
Both teams to score 46.83%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.92%55.08%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.66%76.34%
Grimsby Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.46%20.54%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.95%53.05%
Southend United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.94%41.06%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.39%77.61%
Score Analysis
    Grimsby Town 53.63%
    Southend United 21.15%
    Draw 25.22%
Grimsby TownDrawSouthend United
1-0 @ 13.35%
2-0 @ 10.56%
2-1 @ 9.4%
3-0 @ 5.58%
3-1 @ 4.96%
3-2 @ 2.21%
4-0 @ 2.21%
4-1 @ 1.96%
Other @ 3.4%
Total : 53.63%
1-1 @ 11.88%
0-0 @ 8.43%
2-2 @ 4.19%
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 25.22%
0-1 @ 7.51%
1-2 @ 5.29%
0-2 @ 3.34%
1-3 @ 1.57%
2-3 @ 1.24%
0-3 @ 0.99%
Other @ 1.21%
Total : 21.15%

How you voted: Grimsby Town vs Southend

Grimsby Town
88.9%
Draw
7.4%
Southend United
3.7%
27
Head to Head
Jan 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 24
Grimsby Town
0-0
Southend
Habergham (71'), Spokes (90+1')
McCormack (74'), White (75'), Demetriou (90+4')
Dec 15, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 18
Southend
3-1
Grimsby Town
Taylor (1'), Clifford (57'), Halford (75')
Jackson Jr (45+4')
Hewitt (68'), Waterfall (73')
Waterfall (90+4')
May 7, 2005 3pm
Grimsby Town
1-1
Southend
Reddy (57')
Eastwood (70')
Prior (60')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barnet1290325111427
2York City127411861225
3Forest Green RoversForest Green127322091124
4Rochdale127232091123
5Gateshead117222215723
6Oldham AthleticOldham126511711623
7Eastleigh126331915421
8Sutton UnitedSutton125431916319
9AltrinchamAltrincham125341515018
10Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red124532013717
11Halifax TownHalifax124531210217
12Yeovil TownYeovil124351314-115
13Woking124351316-315
14Solihull MoorsSolihull124351418-415
15Aldershot TownAldershot123541717014
16Southend UnitedSouthend123541717014
17Tamworth114251219-714
18Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool12345711-413
19Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead123271420-611
20Braintree TownBraintree12246613-710
21Boston UnitedBoston122371222-109
22Fylde122371324-119
23WealdstoneWealdstone12156917-88
24Ebbsfleet12129925-165


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