Two sides level on 33 points in the Primeira Liga standings square off on Saturday when Pacos de Ferreira and Maritimo go head to head at the Estadio Capital do Movel.
O Maior das Ilhas cruised to a 2-0 victory when the sides locked horns in November's reverse fixture and will be seeking to complete an impressive league double over the hosts.
Match preview
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Pacos de Ferreira were denied a third win on the bounce last Sunday when they were beaten 2-0 by a rampant Sporting Lisbon side at the Estadio Jose Alvalade.
In-form forward Pablo Sarabia made no mistake from 18 yards out as he converted his 20th-minute penalty to put the reigning champions in front heading into half time before Nuno Santos scored in the 72nd minute to make sure of the win.
Prior to that, Cesar Peixoto's side saw off a dogged Arouca side 1-0 away from home on March 12 before claiming a 2-1 victory over Moreirense eight days later.
With 33 points from 28 games, Pacos de Ferreira are currently ninth in the Primeira Liga standings, level on points with Saturday's visitors and 13 points off Gil Vicente in the final Conference League qualification spot.
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Maritimo, on the other hand, continue to struggle for form as they suffered a 3-1 defeat against Tondela at the Estadio do Maritimo last time out.
Salvador Agra's 12th-minute penalty and an own goal from Marcelo Alves saw both sides level heading into half time, but Rafael Barbosa put the visitors ahead in the 86th minute before Tiago Dantas capped off a sensational team performance with a 96th-minute strike.
Maritimo have now failed to win any of their most recent three outings, playing out a 1-1 draw with Gil Vicente on March 20 sandwiched between defeats at the hands of Vitoria de Guimaraes and Tondela respectively.
However, O Maior das Ilhas head into the weekend unbeaten in each of their last three games on the road, claiming two wins and one draw since losing 2-1 at Porto back in January.
Vasco Seabra's men follow Saturday's game with another mid-table clash against Boavista, while Pacos de Ferreira visit the Dom Afonso Henriques to face Vitoria de Guimaraes on April 16.
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Team News
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Pacos de Ferreira will be without the services of veteran midfielder Nicolas Gaitan after the former Atletico Madrid man came off injured in the 40th minute against Sporting Lisbon last Sunday.
He is joined on the Pacenses injury table by the Portuguese duo of Jorge Silva and Joao Vigario, who have been sidelined through knee and ankle injuries respectively.
Peixoto will also be unable to call upon the services of the injured Flavio Ramos, while French youngster Ndri Koffi continues his spell on the sidelines after picking up an injury against Braga back in February.
As for Maritimo, Italian forward Stafano Beltrame is set to sit out his second straight game after sustaining an injury in the game against Vitoria de Guimaraes on March 13.
Other than that, O Maior das Ilhas head into the game with a clean bill of health and no suspension concerns, giving Seabra the luxury of a relatively full strength squad at his disposal.
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Antunes, Lima, Baixinho, Delgado; Carlos, Santos; Ferreira, Pires, Uilton; Butzke
Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Victor; Winck, M Costa, Junior, China; Rossi, Telles; Guitane, Sousa, Vidigal; Tagueu
We say: Pacos de Ferreira 1-1 Maritimo
Maritimo have suffered a slump in form in recent weeks and will head into the game in search of a pick-me-up. While they are unbeaten in three straight away games, they face an evenly-matched Pacos de Ferreira side, who will be looking to quickly return to winning ways following their loss to Sporting Lisbon. We predict both sides will cancel out each other's efforts and settle for a share of the spoils.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (9.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
