Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 46.23%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 27.57% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.