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Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 22
Feb 27, 2023 at 9.15pm UK
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Braga

Guimaraes
2 - 1
Braga

Silva (31' pen.), Safira (41')
Silva (23'), Safira (44'), Silva (45+4'), Silva (84'), Bamba (90+5')
Silva (54')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Djalo (88')
Niakate (7'), Tormena (16'), Djalo (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions
Last Game: Casa Pia 0-0 Guimaraes
Sunday, February 19 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Braga

All competitions
Primeira Liga
Last Game: Fiorentina 3-2 Braga
Thursday, February 23 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 0-1 Braga

 Vitoria have conceded the joint-third fewest home goals in the Portuguese top flight — notably holding out to a goalless draw against Benfica and losing 1-0 to Porto — keeping six clean sheets in 11 fixtures at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques. However, Braga are the division's top scorers away from home, and that consistency in finding the back of the net on their travels should produce a slender victory in the derby. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 39.68%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawBraga
34.08% (0.202 0.2) 26.24% (0.442 0.44) 39.68% (-0.646 -0.65)
Both teams to score 53.14% (-1.422 -1.42)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.55% (-1.848 -1.85)51.44% (1.847 1.85)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.74% (-1.636 -1.64)73.25% (1.634 1.63)
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.29% (-0.77199999999999 -0.77)28.7% (0.772 0.77)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.46% (-0.974 -0.97)64.53% (0.973 0.97)
Braga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.53% (-1.175 -1.18)25.46% (1.174 1.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.7% (-1.635 -1.64)60.29% (1.632 1.63)
Score Analysis
    Vitoria de Guimaraes 34.08%
    Braga 39.68%
    Draw 26.23%
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawBraga
1-0 @ 9.12% (0.47 0.47)
2-1 @ 7.79% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-0 @ 5.69% (0.175 0.18)
3-1 @ 3.24% (-0.08 -0.08)
3-0 @ 2.37% (0.023 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.22% (-0.133 -0.13)
4-1 @ 1.01% (-0.047 -0.05)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 34.08%
1-1 @ 12.47% (0.23 0.23)
0-0 @ 7.31% (0.525 0.52)
2-2 @ 5.33% (-0.199 -0.2)
3-3 @ 1.01% (-0.098 -0.1)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.23%
0-1 @ 10% (0.398 0.4)
1-2 @ 8.54% (-0.129 -0.13)
0-2 @ 6.84% (0.045 0.04)
1-3 @ 3.89% (-0.195 -0.2)
0-3 @ 3.12% (-0.086 -0.09)
2-3 @ 2.43% (-0.177 -0.18)
1-4 @ 1.33% (-0.115 -0.12)
0-4 @ 1.07% (-0.068 -0.07)
Other @ 2.47%
Total : 39.68%

How you voted: Guimaraes vs Braga

Vitoria de Guimaraes
27.2%
Draw
8.6%
Braga
64.2%
81
Head to Head
Jan 11, 2023 6.45pm
Round of 16
Braga
3-2
Guimaraes
Ruiz (80', 85'), Oliveira (83')
Sequeira (23'), Horta (45+2'), Oliveira (62')
Silva (16'), Silva (45+6')
Amaro (45+2'), Silva (52'), Safira (89')
Sep 3, 2022 3.30pm
Braga
1-0
Guimaraes
Tormena (90+8')
Elmusrati (45+1'), Silva (90+1')

Amaro (2'), Freitas (18'), Fernandes (23'), Varela (59'), Lameiras (90+1'), Silva (90+1'), Safira (90+6')
Feb 5, 2022 8.30pm
Guimaraes
2-1
Braga
Estupinan (18'), Luz (90')
Silva (3'), Estupinan (29'), Handel (43'), Fernandes (45')
Semedo (58')
Oliveira (48')
Rodrigues (20')
Aug 29, 2021 6pm
Braga
0-0
Guimaraes

Silva (32'), Elmusrati (37')

Almeida (24'), Rochinha (27'), Soares (52'), Trmal (85'), Mumin (90+2')
Mar 9, 2021 9.45pm
Braga
3-0
Guimaraes
Piazon (5'), Ruiz (40'), Sporar (85')
Piazon (42')

Ouattara (2'), Andre (59')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon14120243103336
2Porto1411123392434
3Benfica1310213282432
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara149051613327
5Braga147432516925
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes146441814422
7MoreirenseMoreirense146261919020
8FamalicaoFamalicao144731715219
9Casa Pia144551317-417
10Gil Vicente144461724-716
11Rio AveRio Ave144461525-1016
12Estoril PraiaEstoril143561221-914
13Nacional13337817-912
14AVS142661122-1112
15Estrela Amadora143381224-1212
16BoavistaBoavista142571019-911
17AroucaArouca14329823-1511
18SC FarenseFarense14239720-139
> Primeira Liga Full Table


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