Primeira Liga | Gameweek 15

Dec 28, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Jose Gomes

Estrela Amadora
1 - 4
Arouca

Gaspar (11')
Dida (71')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mujica (47'), Jason (77'), Montero (80'), Bukia (90+1')
Mujica (40'), Sylla (66'), De Arruabarrena (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Primeira Liga clash between Estrela Amadora and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Farense 0-0 Estrela Amadora
Friday, December 15 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 3-0 Gil Vicente
Saturday, December 16 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Estrela Amadora 1-1 Arouca

While Estrela have either won or lost every home game this term, Thursday could be the exception, with both sides likely to cancel each other out in gameweek 15's encounter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.19%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Estrela Amadora	Draw	Arouca
33.85% ( 0.04)	26.95% ( 0)	39.19% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 50.81% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.61% (

-0.01)

54.39% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.23% (

-0.01)

75.77% (

0.01)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.69% (

0.02)

30.31% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.51% (

0.03)

66.49% (

-0.03)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.9% (

-0.03)

27.09% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.53% (

-0.04)

62.47% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Estrela Amadora 33.85%

Arouca 39.19%

Draw 26.95%

Estrela Amadora	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 9.8% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.85% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.04% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.33% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 33.85%	1-1 @ 12.8% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.21% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.99% Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.95%	0-1 @ 10.72% 1-2 @ 8.36% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.19% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 2.07% Total : 39.19%