Primeira Liga | Gameweek 9

Oct 27, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
0 - 1
Moreirense

Trezza (37'), Kouassi (46')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Marcelo (39')
Antonisse (76')
Antonisse (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Moreirense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Felgueiras 1932 1-3 Arouca
Saturday, October 21 at 7pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Moreirense

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Paredes 2-1 Moreirense
Saturday, October 21 at 2pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

We said: Arouca 1-1 Moreirense

On a three-match undefeated streak in the league, Moreirense will fancy their chances to extend that to four with maximum points. However, Arouca will have taken belief from having recently pushed Sporting Lisbon, leading us to predict a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Moreirense in this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Moreirense
35.11% ( -0.18)	27.73% ( 0.05)	37.17% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 48.6% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.75% (

-0.21)

57.24% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.91% (

-0.17)

78.09% (

0.17)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.07% (

-0.22)

30.93% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.78% (

-0.26)

67.22% (

0.26)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.36% (

-0.02)

29.64% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.32% (

-0.03)

65.68% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Arouca 35.1%

Moreirense 37.16%

Draw 27.72%

Arouca	Draw	Moreirense
1-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.68% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 6.31% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.06% Total : 35.1%	1-1 @ 13.08% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.72%	0-1 @ 11.14% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.95% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.78% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 37.16%