Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 38.52%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 36.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gil Vicente in this match.