Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 35.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Moreirense | Draw | Arouca |
35.93% ( 0.27) | 26.05% ( 0.28) | 38.02% ( -0.55) |
Both teams to score 54.03% ( -0.92) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.58% ( -1.19) | 50.42% ( 1.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.64% ( -1.07) | 72.35% ( 1.07) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.91% ( -0.41) | 27.09% ( 0.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.53% ( -0.54) | 62.47% ( 0.54) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.1% ( -0.84) | 25.9% ( 0.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.11% ( -1.16) | 60.88% ( 1.16) |
Score Analysis |
Moreirense | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 3.52% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.05% Total : 35.93% | 1-1 @ 12.37% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.33) 2-2 @ 5.46% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.13% Total : 26.04% | 0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 8.36% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 6.4% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.42% Total : 38.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |