Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 71.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.73%) and 1-2 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.11%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
11.56% ( 0.17) | 17.21% ( 0.26) | 71.23% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 51.18% ( -0.4) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.7% ( -0.81) | 38.3% ( 0.81) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.42% ( -0.86) | 60.58% ( 0.86) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.57% ( -0.25) | 43.43% ( 0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.35% ( -0.21) | 79.65% ( 0.21) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.47% ( -0.31) | 9.52% ( 0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.08% ( -0.73) | 31.92% ( 0.73) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 1.25% Total : 11.56% | 1-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 17.21% | 0-2 @ 11.43% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 9.54% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 8.96% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 7.47% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 5.27% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 4.39% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.05) 0-5 @ 2.48% ( -0.08) 1-5 @ 2.07% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.06) 0-6 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.97% Total : 71.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 32 | 30 |
2 | Porto | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 23 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 22 |
4 | Braga | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 16 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
9 | Casa Pia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 12 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
11 | BoavistaBoavista | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 9 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 |
13 | AVS | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 5 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 4 |
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