Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 64.22%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 15.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.31%) and 1-2 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.