Primeira Liga | Gameweek 28
Apr 6, 2025 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Do Dragao
Porto1 - 4Benfica
We said: Porto 1-1 Benfica
With both teams having much at stake, we anticipate a closely fought contest, characterised by tactical discipline and a cautious approach. Although Benfica have been in formidable form of late, Porto's unbeaten record at home this season is no mere coincidence, and it is likely to play a pivotal role once again, leading us to forecast a low-scoring draw. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 34.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (6.22%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Benfica |
41.09% ( -0.05) | 24.34% ( -0.04) | 34.57% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 59.79% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.12% ( 0.18) | 42.87% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.72% ( 0.18) | 65.28% ( -0.19) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.02% ( 0.06) | 20.98% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.25% ( 0.09) | 53.74% ( -0.1) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.67% ( 0.13) | 24.32% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.29% ( 0.19) | 58.71% ( -0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
Porto 41.09%
Benfica 34.57%
Draw 24.34%
| Porto | Draw | Benfica |
| 2-1 @ 8.8% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.97% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 6.22% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.58% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.79% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.26% ( -0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 41.09% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.34% | 1-2 @ 7.96% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.21% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.1% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.75% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.84% Total : 34.57% |
How you voted: Porto vs Benfica
Porto
40.0%Draw
15.6%Benfica
44.4%45
Head to Head
Apr 7, 2023 6pm
