Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 49.38%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-0 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Arouca in this match.
Result | ||
SC Farense | Draw | Arouca |
25.85% ( 0.65) | 24.77% ( 0.24) | 49.38% ( -0.89) |
Both teams to score 53.37% ( -0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.94% ( -0.47) | 49.06% ( 0.47) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.86% ( -0.43) | 71.14% ( 0.43) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.63% ( 0.29) | 33.37% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.01% ( 0.31) | 69.99% ( -0.31) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.1% ( -0.55) | 19.89% ( 0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.98% ( -0.89) | 52.02% ( 0.89) |
Score Analysis |
SC Farense | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 4% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 2.36% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.46% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.38% Total : 25.85% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.76% | 0-1 @ 10.71% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 5.11% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 4.66% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 2.06% ( -0.09) 0-4 @ 1.88% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.85% Total : 49.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |