Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 74.93%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 9.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.97%) and 0-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-0 (3%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
SC Farense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
9.4% ( -0.08) | 15.66% ( -0.04) | 74.93% ( 0.12) |
Both teams to score 48.59% ( -0.19) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.57% ( -0.07) | 37.43% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.34% ( -0.08) | 59.65% ( 0.08) |
SC Farense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.08% ( -0.21) | 46.92% ( 0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.58% ( -0.16) | 82.42% ( 0.16) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.54% ( 0.01) | 8.46% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.65% ( 0.02) | 29.35% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
SC Farense | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
1-0 @ 3% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 2.81% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.46% Total : 9.4% | 1-1 @ 7.42% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.81% Total : 15.66% | 0-2 @ 12.1% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 9.97% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9.16% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 7.54% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 6.16% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 4.66% ( -0) 0-5 @ 3.04% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 2.3% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.01) 0-6 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) 1-6 @ 0.95% Other @ 3.38% Total : 74.93% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 41 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 31 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Casa Pia | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 24 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 20 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 19 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 18 |
13 | Nacional | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 16 |
15 | AVS | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 14 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
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