Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 45.3%. A win for Braga had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Braga win was 0-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.