Canadian outfit Toronto travel to New York Red Bulls on Saturday looking for their first win in the Major League Soccer this season.
Gerhard Struber's New York Red Bulls side currently sit seventh in the Eastern MLS after picking up their first victory last time out.
Match preview
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The hosts made a poor start to their 2021 campaign with two defeats in their opening fixtures, but a 2-0 win in their last game gave the Red Bulls their first points of the season.
Two assists for Brazilian forward Fabio set up the goals that came from the midfield pair of Cristian Casseres and Caden Clark, and that was enough to see off a so far winless Chicago side.
That win moved Struber's side into the promotion qualification places, and with the league in its early stages the points between the teams are close, with the Red Bulls only four points behind leaders New England but also just two points clear of bottom-placed Cincinnati.
New York Red Bulls will want to improve on their league position from the previous two seasons when they finished sixth in the league leading to 12th and 13th-place finishes in the overall season.
The last two seasons have been a massive drop off since the 2018 campaign which saw the Red Bulls crowned champions of their Eastern division and the overall national league.
In comparison, Saturday's visitors have been on the rise in the previous three seasons having climbed from a 19th-placed finish in 2018 to a second-placed finish overall last season.
Chris Armas, who is preparing to face his former club, will be disappointed with the start Toronto have made to this campaign with only one point from their opening two league fixtures, and they have been knocked out of the CONCACAF Champions League at the quarter-final stage.
A 4-2 defeat to Montreal in the opening league game was followed by a 2-2 draw with Vancouver Whitecaps and that was not the most ideal form to be heading into their Champions League games with Mexican side Cruz Azul.
Last time out, Toronto fell to a second defeat against Cruz Azul, a 28th-minute strike from Brayan Angulo meaning that the tie ended in a 4-1 defeat over the two legs for Armas's side.
It leaves Toronto without a win in four games and the recent history of head-to-head fixtures between the two sides favours New York Red Bulls, who are unbeaten against the Canadian side in their last three meetings.
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Team News
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New York Red Bulls full-back Jason Pendant has not featured for his side this season and he is expected to be absent again on Saturday due to a shoulder injury. Andrew Gutman has been Struber's first-choice left back in their last three fixtures.
New signings Patryk Klimala and Thomas Edwards could feature for the Red Bulls after being absent from the side all season due to coronavirus quarantine.
The Red Bulls' main source of goals this season has come from their midfield as Clark and Casseres have four between them, and they are expected to start in the middle of the pitch again on Saturday.
Toronto have suffered with a big injury list at the start of the season, and were without eight first-team players for their opening fixtures.
Centre-back Chris Mavinga made a return to the side in their second-leg defeat to Cruz Azul, when he was substituted off at half time, and the 29-year-old could be passed fit enough to start this game as well.
However, attacking players Alejandro Pozuelo, who has been absent all season, and Erickson Gallardo, who only managed 30 minutes in Toronto's opening CONCACAF Champions League game, are expected to miss the clash with New York Red Bulls through injury.
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Gutman, Long, Nealis, Duncan; Davis, Casseres, Amaya, Clark; Barlow, Fabio
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Morrow, Mavinga, Gonzalez, Laryea; Delgado, Bradley; Shaffelburg, Osorio, De Leon; Akinola
We say: New York Red Bulls 2-1 Toronto
New York Red Bulls have scored in every game they have played this season and a 2-0 win against Chicago last time out could give them the confidence to build some momentum and follow that result up with another victory.
Toronto's confidence would have taken a hit after their recent run of form and their last away game in the MLS ended in a 4-2 defeat, suggesting that they may struggle at the Red Bull Arena on Saturday.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 39.71%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Toronto win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
