Two teams who are still fighting to stave off relegation in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A will face each other in a critical encounter on Saturday, as Sao Paulo host Sport Recife from Cicero Pompeu de Toledo Stadium.
Sao Paulo are five points clear of the relegation line, going unbeaten in consecutive fixtures, while Recife are seven points behind that line despite scoring a 1-0 win over Bahia in their previous game.
Match preview
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It has been a problematic and underwhelming campaign for Tricolor Paulista this year, as the six-time Serie A champions have been near the bottom of the standings for most of 2021.
Some timely and somewhat unexpected victories have prevented them from what could be a disastrous domestic season, beating Corinthians and Palmeiras over the past two months and having failed to concede a goal in their previous two games.
Rogerio Ceni saw his team do a great job of shutting down the newly crowned Copa Sudamericana champions in their previous outing but could only generate two shots on target themselves as they drew 0-0.
Their attacking players have struggled to get good service from the back end and in midfield, as this club have had difficulty finding any kind of balance in their play throughout the year, scoring only 26 goals in league play, the second-fewest in the Brasileiro Serie A.
They have not been clinical in the final third, but if you take away that 4-0 defeat to Flamengo in mid-November, you can see how impressive they are at the back when playing at home, posting three clean sheets in their previous four matches in Sao Paulo and conceding multiple goals at Cicero Pompeu only twice since the beginning of July in domestic encounters.
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This is the time of the year where winning is essential, because no matter what you are playing for, it is rare to see teams ahead of you or behind you lose, and Sport Recife know that all too well.
Even though they were able to defeat Bahia 1-0 last week, they are further behind in the relegation battle, and now they only have four games left to try and get themselves out of their current predicament.
They are always able to keep games close with a stingy defence who are patient and well-structured, but they can also be very streaky, and those winless skids can last up to five or more games in a row for them, which if you look back on it now could make the difference between relegation or another year in the top flight.
This team have struggled to get the ball up the field quickly enough to catch opposing sides on the break, which is an issue when you employ a defensive approach with a focus on stopping the opposition first and foremost.
Coming into this contest, Gustavo Florentin has seen his side lose five straight on the road, having been shut out in three of those matches.
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Team News
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Tiago Volpi collected his 13th clean sheet of the year thanks to some excellent work from midfielders Gabriel Sara, Rodrigo Nestor, Igor Gomes and Marquinhos, who helped to hold El Paranaense to only 29% possession as Volpi did not have to save a single shot.
Walce is the only injury concern for Sao Paulo heading into this fixture as he is still nursing a cruciate ligament rupture and likely will not see the field again this year.
Paulinho Moccelin had the only goal for Recife in their victory last week versus Bahia as Mailson made four saves for his 13th shutout of the year, putting him three back of Everson for the league lead.
Neilton is out with a knee injury, Joao Igor has a ruptured knee ligament, Thiago Lopes is suffering from an Achilles tendon rupture, Leandro Barcia has a muscle injury and Everaldo continues to struggle with muscular problems.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Vinicius, Miranda, Reinaldo, Alves; Sara, Benitez, Gomes, Bueno; Rigoni, Calleri
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Mailson; Ewerthom, Thyere, Sabino, Sander; Ze Weilson, Marcao, Moccelin; Felipe, Mikael, Gustavo
We say: Sao Paulo 1-0 Sport Recife
These are the two lowest-scoring sides in the Brasileiro Serie A who have both lacked quality in attack, so this could be a tough match to call, but we are going with Sao Paulo because they have been solid at home while Recife rarely generate a lot offensively on the road.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 60.85%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 14.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.39%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
