In the first leg of the third Champions League qualifying round, Sparta Prague are set to host FCSB at epet ARENA on Tuesday.
The home side have nine points after three matchweeks in Czech Republic's top flight, while the visitors have two after three games in Romania's Liga 1.
Match preview
![William Baeten of FCSB celebrates after his side's victory after match against FC Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Uefa second leg champions league second qualifying round on July 31, 2024 [on August 4, 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/31/william-baeten.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "William Baeten of FCSB celebrates after his side's victory after match against FC Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Uefa second leg champions league second qualifying round on July 31, 2024 [on August 4, 2024]")
© Imago
The hosts overcame Shamrock Rovers 6-2 on aggregate in the previous qualifying round of the Champions League after winning the first leg 2-0 on July 23 and the second 4-2 on July 30.
Last term, Sparta were eliminated in the third round of qualifying of the competition after losing 4-2 on penalties against Copenhagen, although they did reach the round of 16 in the Europa League.
Rudi last appeared in the group stage of the Champions League in the 2005-06 season but lost four of six group games and failed to win any in that campaign.
Sparta won the league in 2023-24 with 87 points from 35 games, and they have won all three of their matches in the top flight so far in 2024-25, including their last fixture on August 2 against Dukla Prague.
Manager Lars Friis will be pleased that his side have also started their league campaign in excellent goalscoring form, as they are currently the division's best offensive team with eight goals scored.
Friis's side have won their last five matches in all competitions at epet ARENA and have in fact only lost once in their last 29 home fixtures.
![Indrit Tuci (down) and Markus Solbakken (up) of Sparta Praha celebrate after scoring during second qualifying round UEFA Champions League, 2nd leg match on July 30, 2024 [on August 4 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/31/indrit-tuci-and-markus-solbakken.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Indrit Tuci (down) and Markus Solbakken (up) of Sparta Praha celebrate after scoring during second qualifying round UEFA Champions League, 2nd leg match on July 30, 2024 [on August 4 2024]")
© Imago
Opponents FCSB defeated Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-1 on aggregate in the second qualifying round after beating Virtus 11-1 on aggregate in the first round.
The visitors drew 1-1 in the first leg against Maccabi Tel Aviv on July 23, but this draw was not reflective of the teams' performances considering FCSB had 16 shots, while their adversary only had four.
The Red and Blues managed to restrict their opponents to just one shot in the second leg on July 31, although they still only avoided extra time thanks to William Baeten's winner in the 90th minute.
FCSB are currently 14th after three matchweeks having drawn their first two games of the 2024-25 season and lost 2-0 in their third against Otelul on July 26.
However, that loss was manager Ilias Charalampous's side's only defeat in their last 10 games.
Charalampous's team have also been strong away from home in recent weeks considering they have won four of their last five matches on the road, scoring 20 goals in these fixtures.
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Team News
![Coach of Sparta Prague Lars Friis during second qualifying round UEFA Champions League, 2nd leg match on July 30, 2024 [on August 4, 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/31/lars-friis.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Coach of Sparta Prague Lars Friis during second qualifying round UEFA Champions League, 2nd leg match on July 30, 2024 [on August 4, 2024]")
© Imago
Winger Roman Mokrovics has not featured for the hosts since July 13, while defender Filip Panak has not made an appearance since July 19, and both are doubts for the game.
Boss Friis could make several changes to the team that won last time out against Dukla Prague and field an XI more similar to the one that beat Shamrock Rovers in the second qualifying round.
As such, while Martin Vitik and Asger Sorensen could retain their places in defence, Tomas Wiesner, Lukas Sadilek, Qazim Laci and Imanol Garcia de Albeniz could all come back into the starting XI.
As for the visitors, they will be without Alexandru Pantea, who has not featured since February.
FCSB will also miss the presence of winger Octavian Popescu, who has not made an appearance since May 19.
Sparta Prague possible starting lineup:
Jensen; Vitik, Sorensen, Zeleny; Wiesner, Sadilek, Laci, De Albeniz; Danek, Olatunji, Krasniqi
FCSB possible starting lineup:
Tarnovanu; Cretu, Dawa, Ngezana, Radunovic; Sut, Lixandru; Stefanescu, Olaru, Baluta; Miculescu
We say: Sparta Prague 2-0 FCSB
Although FCSB are capable goalscorers, they only progressed to the current stage of the competition because of a late winner, and they could struggle to find the back of the net again on Tuesday.
Additionally, if Sparta's strong performances against Shamrock Rovers are anything to go by, then the hosts could come into the second leg with a sizeable advantage.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 45.15%. A win for had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest win was 0-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%).
Lewis Nolan
