Inter Milan will continue their defence of the Serie A title when they travel to the Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia on Good Friday.
The hosts have won three of their last five league games on home soil without conceding, while the visitors are unbeaten in each of their last 10 matches on the road.
Match preview
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Spezia managed to avoid a fourth straight defeat away from home when they played out their first goalless draw of the campaign at Empoli last weekend.
The Aquilotti have accumulated seven points from their last four matches which has helped them to climb 11 points clear of the relegation zone, and survival in the top flight for a third successive season now seems to be a strong possibility.
Spezia boss Thiago Motta is now preparing to lock horns with his former club Inter, where he played 55 times in Serie A between August 2009 and January 2012. The Liguria-based outfit are yet to beat the Nerazzurri in the top flight, but they did secure a hard-fought 1-1 draw against them on home soil last season.
Motta's men have won their last two home games without conceding against Cagliari and Venezia, but a third successive win without reply is unlikely against Inter, who have only lost one of their 15 away games in Serie A so far this term.
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Inter's hopes of retaining the Scudetto have been boosted in the last few weeks as they have taken advantage of city rivals AC Milan dropping points in their last two matches.
While the current league leaders could only draw against Bologna and Torino, Inter secured maximum points against Juventus and Hellas Verona.
A Hakan Calhanoglu penalty helped the Nerazzurri secure an important 1-0 away victory over Juve on April 3, their first league win on the road in 2022, before strikes from Edin Dzeko and Nicolo Barella helped them claim all three points in a 2-0 win over Verona at San Siro last weekend.
Simone Inzaghi's side remain in second place but they have now moved to within two points of Milan at the summit and they also have a game in hand.
Inter will be full of confidence heading into their Good Friday clash with Spezia, as they boast the highest points-per-game average (2.6) against Serie A teams currently in the bottom half of the table, claiming a total of 36 points in 14 games.
Victory for Inzaghi's men against Spezia would see them move to the top of the table, but if Milan were to beat Genoa two hours later, they would then return to the summit.
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Team News
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Spezia's only injury concerns are still with midfield duo Mehdi Bourabia and Leo Sena, but Motta otherwise has a fully fit squad to choose from.
A back four of Kelvin Amian, Dimitrios Nikolaou, Martin Erlic and Arkadiusz Reca is set to remain intact, shielding goalkeeper Ivan Provedel.
Giulio Maggiore could be joined in midfield by Simone Bastoni and Jakub Kiwior, while Rey Manaj is expected to lead the line as the central striker.
As for Inter, they have a clean bill of health and have been boosted by the return of Lautaro Martinez, who served a one-match suspension last time out.
The Argentina international is set to replace compatriot Joaquin Correa in attack and will likely start alongside Dzeko, who will be hoping to end a four-game goal drought away from home.
Centre-back Alessandro Bastoni and left wing-back Robin Gosens, who both began on the bench against Verona, could be handed starts ahead of Federico Dimarco and Ivan Perisic respectively.
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou, Reca; Maggiore, Kiwior, Bastoni; Agudelo, Manaj, Gyasi
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; De Vrij, Skriniar, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Brozovic, Calhanoglu, Gosens; Martinez, Dzeko
We say: Spezia 0-2 Inter Milan
With Spezia having all but secured their Serie A status for next season, there is more riding on this fixture for Inter as they bid to keep in touch with Milan at the top.
The Nerazzurri were frustrated at the Stadio Alberto Picco last season, but we can see them securing all three points on Good Friday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 67.49%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 13.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.58%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (4.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
