Two of the Bundesliga's over-achievers this season go head-to-head on Saturday when Union Berlin entertain Wolfsburg.
The two sides come into the meeting level on 24 points after 14 matches, with Union Berlin impressively in fifth position in the table, one place ahead of Wolfsburg due to a superior goal difference.
Match preview
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Given this is only Union Berlin's second season in the Bundesliga in their entire history, it has been a simply remarkable season for the club so far.
What has made it all the more impressive has been the results they have picked up without their injured talisman and top goalscorer Max Kruse, with Urs Fischer's side picking up eight points and remaining unbeaten in the four league games since Kruse tore a muscle bundle.
Saturday's 2-0 win at Werder Bremen showcased their strength in depth, with Sheraldo Becker and Taiwo Awoniyi, on loan from Liverpool, devastating their opponents in transition. First Awoniyi selflessly played the ball to his teammate, who struck a fierce shot into the bottom corner from outside of the area, before a terrible piece of defending by Marco Friedl allowed Robert Andrich to play a first time pass into the path of Awoniyi, who scuffed the ball past a helpless Jiri Pavlenka for his fifth goal in six games.
Awoniyi should have sealed the three points in the second half when blazing over from close range after a fine run and cross by Becker; regardless, in part due to Union Berlin's trademark defensive organisation, Bremen simply could not gain a foothold in the game.
Fischer's side are likely to be tested much more against Wolfsburg, but given they drew with Bayern Munich and defeated Borussia Dortmund prior to the winter break, they will come into the match with every confidence of gaining a positive result.
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Having remained unbeaten in their opening 11 league games, Wolfsburg have suffered a setback in recent weeks by losing two of their last three, including 2-0 at Dortmund on Sunday.
However, Oliver Glasner's squad suffered from a coronavirus outbreak prior to Christmas, with Jerome Roussillon and Maximilian Philipp still not available, so any drop off in performance and intensity levels are understandable.
In truth, the Wolves actually started the game against Dortmund more brightly, with Xaver Schlager and Yannick Gerhardt both coming close to scoring in the early exchanges. However, BVB rallied, with Marco Reus looking back to his best in a free role behind Erling Braut Haaland. Indeed, Glasner had a combination of Koen Casteels's brilliance and Jadon Sancho's profligacy to thank for his side remaining level until Manuel Akanji's header broke the deadlock in the 66th minute.
With Wolfsburg pushing for an equaliser, Sancho scored his first league goal of the season in injury time to wrap up the three points for Dortmund and take them above the Wolves in the table and into the top four. Only a win at Union Berlin on Saturday could see Glasner's side return there by the end of the weekend.
Union Berlin Bundesliga form: DLDDWW
Union Berlin form (all competitions): LDDWLW
Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: WDWLWL
Wolfsburg form (all competitions): DWLWWL
Team News
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Union Berlin are likely to remain without Kruse until the end of January, with Anthony Ujah, Christian Gentner, Joel Pohjanpalo and Nico Schlotterbeck all also unavailable due to injury for the visit of Wolfsburg.
Grischa Promel is suspended for one match, meanwhile, having picked up his fifth caution of the season in the win against Bremen. Sebastien Griesbeck is likely to come into the midfield as his replacement.
Pavao Pervan, Philipp and Roussillon appear to remain unavailable for Wolfsburg due to coronavirus, but otherwise Glasner appears to have a full squad to select from.
Maxence Lacroix should come back into the starting lineup having only been used from the bench at Dortmund, while Admir Mehmedi could also start having returned from injury from the bench in the defeat.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Trimmel, Friedrich, Knoche, Hubner, Lenz; Andrich, Griesbeck, Ingvartsen; Becker, Awoniyi
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Baku, Lacroix, Brooks, Otavio; Schlager, Arnold; Steffen, Mehmedi, Brekalo; Weghorst
We say: Union Berlin 1-1 Wolfsburg
With both sides punching above their weight this season, certainly in the case of Union Berlin, we can envisage an entertaining draw in a closely-fought match.
Wolfsburg tend to start games very quickly so it would be no surprise to see them take an early lead before Fischer's side work their way into the game, with Awoniyi and Becker capable of causing any defence issues on current form.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 38.01%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 37.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
