Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Velez Sarsfield and Union La Calera, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Argentinian side Velez Sarsfield host Union La Calera at the Estadio Jose Amalfitani on Wednesday, in gameweek five of the Copa Libertadores.

Union La Calera are yet to register a win in this tournament, while their hosts currently sit second in Group G, two points clear of third-placed LDU de Quito.

Match preview

Union La Calera's Sebastian Saez scores their first goal on April 27, 2021 © Reuters

Velez Sarsfield finished top of Group B in the Liga Profesional Argentina after winning 10 of their 13 fixtures, but last time out Mauricio Pellegrino's side lost in the quarter-finals of the Copa de la Liga Profesional.

That game against Racing Club ended in a goalless draw after 90 minutes but Sarsfield eventually lost 4-2 on penalties after Lucas Janson and Matias de los Santos missed their spot kicks.

After a poor start in the Copa Libertadores, with two defeats in the opening two games, Velez Sarsfield have managed to record back-to-back wins in this competition, the latest coming against LDU de Quito.

Thiago Almada missed a seventh-minute penalty in that game but made up for his mistake just before half time as the playmaker opened the scoring, before Janson and Federico Mancuello sealed a 3-1 victory for the home side.

Pellegrino's side can confirm their place in the next round of the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday with a win, as long as LDU de Quito lose to group leaders Flamengo.

Union La Calera are currently on a bad run of form, registering only one win in their last eight games in all competitions, including no victories in this tournament.

Last time out Luca Marcogiuseppe's side drew 2-2 with Flamengo, who fought back from 2-0 down, after an Ariel Martinez strike and an own goal from Willian Arao put the home side in front within the first 30 minutes of that game.

In the Chilean Primera Division, Union La Calera sit sixth after seven games, with teams needing a third-place or higher finish in that league to secure Copa Libertadores qualification for next season.

Their last league game ended in a 3-0 defeat to Universidad Catolica, who got off to a flying start in that game as they were 2-0 up within the first 10 minutes.

These two sides last clashed in gameweek three of this tournament when Velez Sarsfield came out on top with a 2-0 win over Union La Calera, thanks to goals from Agustin Bouzat and Luca Orellano.

Velez Sarsfield Copa Libertadores form:

Velez Sarsfield form (all competitions):

Union La Calera Copa Libertadores form:

Union La Calera form (all competitions):

Team News

Mauricio Pellegrino, now in charge of Velez Sarsfield, pictured in January 2019 © Reuters

Velez Sarsfield's young right-back Roberto Garcia will be absent for Wednesday's clash with Union La Calera due to isolation for coronavirus. Thomas Ezequiel Guidara is likely to come into Sarsfield's defence.

Juan Martin Lucero is likely to lead the line for the home side, despite not being able to score since April 17, as Pellegrino has continued to put his faith in the 29-year-old to start at the top end of the pitch.

As for the away side on Wednesday, Gonzalo Castellani and Esteban Valencia, who were both sent off in gameweek three of the Copa Libertadores, will be available for selection again after serving their suspension against Flamengo last time out.

Picking up a point against the group leaders in their last game could result in Marcogiuseppe naming the same side who earned that 2-2 draw.

Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Ortega, Abram, Gianetti, Guidara; Mulet, Galdames; Janson, Almada, Bouzat; Lucero

Union La Calera possible starting lineup:
Arias; Wiemberg, Vilches, Gonzalez, Ramirez; Orellana, Laba, Martinez, Cavalleri; Vargas, Saez

SM words green background

We say: Velez Sarsfield 2-0 Union La Calera

Knowing that a win for Velez Sarsfield could book their place in the next round of the Copa Libertadores with one group game to spare, depending on the result of the other game in gameweek five, should give the home side added motivation to defeat Union La Calera once more in this tournament.

Sarsfield have scored at least two goals in all but one of their group games this season and La Calera have conceded at least two goals in all four of their group games, meaning that it is likely Sarsfield will score two goals in this game.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 51.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Union La Calera had a probability of 24.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Union La Calera win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.