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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 16
Dec 2, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval
Newtown logo

Caernarfon
2 - 3
Newtown

O'Rourke (30'), Edwards (62')
Williams (42'), Edwards (45+1')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Robles (8'), Williams (27'), Rushton (53')
Hughes (23'), Mills-Evans (67')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Newtown AFC.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Connah's Quay 3-3 Caernarfon
Friday, November 18 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Newtown AFC

All competitions
Last Game: Flint Town 1-4 Newtown
Saturday, November 19 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.24%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawNewtown AFC
34.87% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07) 23.71% (0.015999999999998 0.02) 41.41% (0.047000000000004 0.05)
Both teams to score 62.2% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.22% (-0.102 -0.1)39.77% (0.095000000000006 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.87% (-0.10599999999999 -0.11)62.13% (0.1 0.1)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.28% (-0.087999999999994 -0.09)22.71% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.62% (-0.123 -0.12)56.37% (0.116 0.12)
Newtown AFC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.47% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)19.52% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.58% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)51.41% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 34.87%
    Newtown AFC 41.41%
    Draw 23.71%
Caernarfon TownDrawNewtown AFC
2-1 @ 7.96% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-0 @ 6.57% (0.014 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.87% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 3.93% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.21% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.41% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.46% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.19% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 34.87%
1-1 @ 10.73% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.5% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.43% (0.019 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.75% (-0.0079999999999998 -0.01)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.71%
1-2 @ 8.77% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
0-1 @ 7.24% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 5.92% (0.02 0.02)
1-3 @ 4.78% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-3 @ 3.54% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.22% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.95% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 1.45% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 1.32% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 41.41%

Head to Head
Aug 30, 2022 7.45pm
Newtown
2-1
Caernarfon
Rushton (3'), Williams (23')
Wynne (55')
Williams (49'), Wynne (73')
Oct 23, 2021 5.15pm
Newtown
1-0
Caernarfon
Mwandwe (45+2')
Roberts (45'), (88'), Jones (90+5')

Hughes (40'), Edwards (42'), John Williams (58'), Jones (88'), Evans (90+1')
Aug 27, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
0-2
Newtown

Edwards (24'), (82'), Jones (84')
Evans (34')
Evans (52'), Williams (85')
(24')
May 29, 2021 12pm
Caernarfon
3-5
Newtown
Kenny (18'), Thomas (59', 73')
Kenny (9'), Cleworth (76'), (84')
Rushton (39' pen.), Mwandwe (44'), Davies (76', 80', 82')
Mills-Evans (45+5'), Williams (90')
Dec 18, 2020 7.45pm
Caernarfon
1-1
Newtown
Bradley (34')
Williams (13'), Mendes (59'), Hayes (77'), Bradley (90+4')
Breese (84')
O'Neill (31')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont1510412982134
2The New SaintsNew Saints13100339132630
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest158521961329
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU157352017324
5Barry Town UnitedBarry156452226-422
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon156362224-221
7Bala TownBala Town154831915420
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay155461815319
9Newtown AFCNewtown155462030-1019
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town1532101731-1411
11Briton Ferry132291528-138
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth1521121138-277
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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