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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 12
Oct 21, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
2 - 1
Aberystwyth

O'Rourke (20'), Marsh-Hughes (73')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Litchfield (81')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Aberystwyth Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last Game: Caernarfon 2-0 Flint Town
Friday, October 14 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Aberystwyth Town

All competitions
Last Game: Aberystwyth 2-1 Haverfordwest
Friday, October 14 at 8pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 29.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
44.82% (-0.584 -0.58) 25.45% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05) 29.73% (0.632 0.63)
Both teams to score 54.05% (0.533 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.48% (0.521 0.52)49.51% (-0.523 -0.52)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.45% (0.467 0.47)71.54% (-0.47 -0.47)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.93% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)22.06% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.59% (-0.072999999999993 -0.07)55.41% (0.07 0.07)
Aberystwyth Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.35% (0.723 0.72)30.65% (-0.725 -0.73)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.11% (0.848 0.85)66.89% (-0.84999999999999 -0.85)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 44.81%
    Aberystwyth Town 29.73%
    Draw 25.44%
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
1-0 @ 10.21% (-0.24 -0.24)
2-1 @ 9.13% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-0 @ 7.72% (-0.188 -0.19)
3-1 @ 4.6% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.89% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-2 @ 2.72% (0.039 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.74% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.47% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.03% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 44.81%
1-1 @ 12.08% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 6.76% (-0.145 -0.15)
2-2 @ 5.4% (0.085 0.09)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.44%
0-1 @ 8% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.15% (0.123 0.12)
0-2 @ 4.73% (0.087 0.09)
1-3 @ 2.82% (0.103 0.1)
2-3 @ 2.13% (0.075 0.08)
0-3 @ 1.86% (0.07 0.07)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 29.73%

Head to Head
Apr 1, 2022 7.45pm
Caernarfon
1-0
Aberystwyth
Morris (71' pen.)
Harrison (28')

Davies (31'), Veale (45'), Jenkins (71'), Orford (72'), Thorn (73')
Dec 17, 2021 7.45pm
Caernarfon
3-3
Aberystwyth
Evans (10'), John Williams (25'), Gosset (68')
Donohue (4'), John Williams (33'), Ojrzynski (58'), Cartwright (90')
Franklin (28'), Jones (59' pen., 62')
Davies (78')
Oct 9, 2021 2.30pm
Aberystwyth
0-1
Caernarfon

Rimmer (6'), (39'), (64')
Thomas (17')
French (19'), (31'), (32')
Mar 6, 2021 2.30pm
Caernarfon
2-2
Aberystwyth
Bickerstaff (84'), Bradley (88')
Kenny (52'), (54'), (89'), (90+4'), (90+5')
Owen (40'), Jenkins (90+5')
Williams (44'), Owen (78')
Dec 15, 2020 7.45pm
Aberystwyth
1-2
Caernarfon
Williams (88')
Davies (49'), Hewitt (64'), Bradford (90+2'), Rimmer (90+4')
Kenny (21'), Thomas (44')
Hayes (74'), Thomas (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont18124235122340
2The New SaintsNew Saints18130550222839
3Cardiff MUCardiff MU199462922731
4Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest188642091130
5Bala TownBala Town1961032619728
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon198472830-228
7Barry Town UnitedBarry198473035-528
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay186572419523
9Newtown AFCNewtown185492238-1619
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town1952122337-1417
11Briton Ferry1842122338-1514
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth1941141746-2913
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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