Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 49.3%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 26% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.