World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Feb 2, 2022 at 12.30am UK

Brazil
4 - 0
Paraguay

Raphinha (28'), Coutinho (62'), Antony (86'), Rodrygo (88')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Arzamendia (20'), Gonzalez (45+5'), Alonso (78')

The Match

Brazil can afford to take their foot off the gas at this stage of Qualifying - as much as Tite will not want them to - but the Selecao will certainly be fired-up from the frenetic encounter with Ecuador. Paraguay's goal-shy tendencies are showing no signs of improving anytime soon - let alone against a star-studded Brazil backline - so a storming Selecao win should be the only outcome here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 67.02%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Paraguay had a probability of 10.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16%) and 3-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.99%), while for a Paraguay win it was 0-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brazil would win this match.

Result
Brazil	Draw	Paraguay
67.02%	22.61%	10.37%

Both teams to score 32.27%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

37.94%

62.06%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.22%

81.78%

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.85%

18.15%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.88%

49.12%

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

39.42%

60.58%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

9.05%

90.94%

Score Analysis

Brazil 67.01%

Paraguay 10.37%

Draw 22.61%

Brazil	Draw	Paraguay
1-0 @ 18.76% 2-0 @ 16% 3-0 @ 9.11% 2-1 @ 8.03% 3-1 @ 4.57% 4-0 @ 3.89% 4-1 @ 1.95% 5-0 @ 1.33% 3-2 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.25% Total : 67.01%	0-0 @ 10.99% 1-1 @ 9.41% 2-2 @ 2.01% Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.61%	0-1 @ 5.51% 1-2 @ 2.36% 0-2 @ 1.38% Other @ 1.12% Total : 10.37%