We said: Gambia 2-0 Seychelles
Despite their struggles, Gambia should have enough quality to defeat an opponent that have won just once since 2016.
Seychelles are on a 14-match losing run in World Cup qualifying, failing to score in nine of such games, and they are unlikely to prevent a 15th loss this weekend.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 72.26%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Seychelles had a probability of 9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.3%) and 3-0 (10.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.49%), while for a Seychelles win it was 0-1 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gambia would win this match.