Expect cracking baseline groundstrokes when former Australian Open finalist Elena Rybakina and two-time semi-finalist Madison Keys battle in Monday's fourth round in their fifth match-up on the WTA Tour.
The 2022 Wimbledon champion has yet to drop a set en route to another fourth round Down Under and looks to get the better of her American opponent for the third time in their head-to-head.
Match preview
© Imago
Without a doubt, Rybakina's Aussie Open history has oscillated from brilliant to average, highlighted by her run to the championship match two years back before falling to Aryna Sabalenka in three sets.
However, that run has been the anomaly for the sixth seed, whose early exits in other appearances have disappointed.
For context, this year's run to the fourth round is the 25-year-old's best showing outside of her run to the championship match in 2023, with three round-two exits and a third-round elimination on her debut at Melbourne Park typifying those disheartening defeats.
Back in the fourth round for the first time since 2023, the Russian-born Kazakhstani player could record her 15th triumph in Australia – only at Wimbledon (19) has she won more.
The eight-time titlist can be confident in her prospects of making the quarter-final for the second time in three years, having dropped no sets en route to her fifth match-up with Keys and entering the round-four match with a 7-1 win-loss record, losing only to Iga Swiatek at the United Cup.
© Imago
Keys has equally thrived so far this season, reaching the quarters in Auckland before losing to Clara Tauson and notching the title recently in Adelaide to give the two-time semi-finalist that winning feeling before facing Rybakina, keen to snap a two-match losing run against the sixth seed.
The 19th seed might have won a second all-American battle in week one, the latter of which was eliminating Australians' bete noire Danielle Collins, but what the nine-time titlist might remember when this is over is her round-two three-setter with qualifier Elena-Gabriela Ruse.
That second-round match lasted two hours and 30 minutes, the longest Keys has spent on court at the ongoing event, as she needed to clinch two tight sets either side of a second-set dip to defeat the Romanian 7-6(1), 2-6, 7-5.
The 29-year-old has improved to 30-10 overall at the Major, three victories behind her US Open tally of wins (33), and she seeks her 31st at an event she holds a 75% success rate – higher than her win rate at Flushing Meadows (72%).
Improving to 10-1 this season before facing Rybakina – a 91% success on tour – should encourage a player bidding to advance to a quarter-final berth at a Major for the first time since the 2023 US Open and 11th overall at the expense of her top-10 opponent.
Tournament so far
Elena Rybakina:
First round: vs. Emerson Jones 6-1 6-1
Second round: vs. Iva Jovic 6-0 6-3
Third round: vs. Dayana Yastremska 6-3 6-4
Madison Keys:
First round: vs. Ann Li 6-4 7-5
Second round: vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse 7-6[1] 2-6 7-5
Third round: vs. Danielle Collins 6-4 6-4
Head To Head
Miami (2024) - Round of 16: Rybakina 6-3 7-5
Ostrava (2022) - Round of 32: Rybakina 5-7 6-3 6-3
Cincinnati (2022) - Quarter-final: Keys 6-2 6-4
French Open (2022) - Round of 32: Keys 3-6 6-1 7-6(3)
Both women have faced off four times, with each player claiming two wins – Keys won the pair's first two match-ups, but Rybakina has done likewise in the recent meetings, notably on hard courts.
Monday's match will represent their second at a Grand Slam, though the first meeting came at Roland Garros three years back, which was claimed by the 29-year-old in a third-set 10-point tiebreak.
The American player enters the fourth-round match with a 3-7 recent record against top-10 opponents, although two victories in the last 10 matches against the elite were en route to the title in Adelaide, beating Daria Kasatkina in the quarters and Jessica Pegula in the championship match.
We say: Rybakina to win in three sets
Although Rybakina is backed for a win, she could be forced to a decider by an opponent who enters the fourth round with momentum and a title under her belt.
The Kazakhstani should triumph in the battle of these heavy hitters, extending her winning streak to three over the 19th seed.
