We said: Poland 4-0 Malta
Malta may have been beaten in 21 of their last 25 qualifying matches, but their defensive record has distinctly improved over the past few months - albeit against lower-ranked nations.
Now faced by tougher opposition, they are set to come up short at Stadion Narodowy, with goal-shy Poland taking their chance to go all-out in attack.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 80.17%. A draw had a probability of 13.4% and a win for Malta had a probability of 6.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.82%) and 1-0 (10.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a Malta win it was 0-1 (2.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Poland in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Poland.
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