Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lahti win with a probability of 36.66%. A win for TPS had a probability of 35.36% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lahti win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.83%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest TPS win was 1-0 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lahti would win this match.