We said: Botswana 1-2 Cape Verde
Cape Verde will be scratching their head as to how they dropped all three points on Friday despite their dominance in front of tier home supporters. On paper, Bubista's men remain favourites heading into Tuesday and we are backing them to come away with all three points, albeit by a narrow margin.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botswana win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Cape Verde had a probability of 31.62% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botswana win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.75%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Cape Verde win was 0-1 (11.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Botswana in this match.