Cagliari have had some tough fixtures to navigate in recent weeks, welcoming Atalanta and Inter Milan to Sardinia, and going to San Siro last weekend, but the league table does not lie, and they are in the bottom three for a reason.
Leece have lost just three of Giampaolo's first eight games in charge, and while their attack may still be rather blunt, they have found a knack of getting results recently.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (10.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
0.8) 
-1.03) 
