We said: Egypt X-Y Cape Verde
Egypt are seasonal performers when it comes to the AFCON qualifiers, losing just one of the last 12 AFCON qualifying matches making them favourites in this clash.
Cape Verde have a solid defence and are now a force in African football – however, they have found it difficult to pick up results on the road against top oppositions, which is why we think the hosts will win this one.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 61.07%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Cape Verde had a probability of 16.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.69%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Cape Verde win it was 0-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Egypt would win this match.