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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 49.15%. A win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 27% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest VfL Bochum win was 1-2 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
Result | ||
Mainz 05 | Draw | VfL Bochum |
49.15% ( -0.21) | 23.85% ( 0.05) | 27% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 57.4% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.78% ( -0.13) | 44.22% ( 0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.4% ( -0.12) | 66.6% ( 0.13) |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.9% ( -0.13) | 18.1% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.96% ( -0.22) | 49.04% ( 0.22) |
VfL Bochum Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.09% ( 0.05) | 29.91% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.99% ( 0.06) | 66.01% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Mainz 05 | Draw | VfL Bochum |
2-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.44% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.57% Total : 49.15% | 1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.76% 0-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.84% | 1-2 @ 6.74% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.94% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.17% Total : 27% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 53 | 13 | 40 | 42 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 41 | 23 | 18 | 38 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 30 |
5 | Stuttgart | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 29 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 28 |
7 | Wolfsburg | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 27 |
8 | Freiburg | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 27 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 26 |
10 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 25 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
12 | Augsburg | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 19 |
13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 17 |
14 | St Pauli | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
15 | Heidenheim | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 14 |
16 | Hoffenheim | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 14 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 11 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 37 | -23 | 9 |
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