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Bundesliga | Gameweek 14
Dec 14, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
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Mainz
2 - 1
Bayern

Jae-sung (41', 60')
Kohr (49'), Mwene (90'), Amiri (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sane (87')
Kimmich (78'), Laimer (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Wolfsburg 4-3 Mainz
Sunday, December 8 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Shakhtar 1-5 Bayern
Tuesday, December 10 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Mainz 05 1-3 Bayern Munich

 Bayern have been rampant in front of goal all season, and it is plausible that they could score multiple times on Saturday. However, given the injuries in defence and to Neuer, Mainz will likely have opportunities of their own, and they may at least prevent the visitors from keeping a clean sheet. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 13.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.47%) and 1-3 (7.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.14%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
13.87% (0.632 0.63) 16.59% (0.238 0.24) 69.53% (-0.871 -0.87)
Both teams to score 61.38% (0.986 0.99)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.04% (0.383 0.38)28.95% (-0.386 -0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
50.08% (0.468 0.47)49.92% (-0.471 -0.47)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.38% (1.122 1.12)33.62% (-1.123 -1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.73% (1.204 1.2)70.26% (-1.206 -1.21)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.46% (-0.079000000000008 -0.08)7.53% (0.077100000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.99% (-0.202 -0.2)27.01% (0.2 0.2)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 13.87%
    Bayern Munich 69.53%
    Draw 16.59%
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.89% (0.133 0.13)
1-0 @ 2.76% (0.023 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.83% (0.108 0.11)
2-0 @ 1.51% (0.057 0.06)
3-1 @ 1.41% (0.089 0.09)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 13.87%
1-1 @ 7.14% (0.03 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.03% (0.152 0.15)
0-0 @ 2.53% (-0.058 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.58% (0.088 0.09)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 16.59%
1-2 @ 9.23% (0.0010000000000012 0)
0-2 @ 8.47% (-0.261 -0.26)
1-3 @ 7.96% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-3 @ 7.3% (-0.256 -0.26)
0-1 @ 6.55% (-0.176 -0.18)
1-4 @ 5.14% (-0.041 -0.04)
0-4 @ 4.72% (-0.185 -0.19)
2-3 @ 4.34% (0.114 0.11)
2-4 @ 2.8% (0.062 0.06)
1-5 @ 2.66% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-5 @ 2.44% (-0.106 -0.11)
2-5 @ 1.45% (0.027 0.03)
1-6 @ 1.15% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-6 @ 1.05% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-4 @ 1.02% (0.053 0.05)
Other @ 3.27%
Total : 69.53%

How you voted: Mainz vs Bayern

Mainz 05
17.5%
Draw
6.8%
Bayern Munich
75.7%
103
Head to Head
Oct 30, 2024 7.45pm
Second Round
Mainz
0-4
Bayern

Kohr (20'), Nebel (45+3'), Jenz (45+3'), Nebel (64')
Musiala (2', 37', 45+4'), Sane (45+1')
Laimer (43')
> Preview
Mar 9, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 25
Bayern
8-1
Mainz
Kane (13', 45+7', 70'), Goretzka (19', 90+2'), Muller (47'), Musiala (61'), Gnabry (66')
Laimer (5')
Amiri (31')
Widmer (84')
> Preview
Oct 21, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 8
Mainz
1-3
Bayern
Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')
Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 29
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Mane (29')
> Preview
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern16123148133539
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen16105140231735
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1693436231330
4RB Leipzig169342822630
5Mainz 05Mainz1684430201028
6Freiburg168352426-227
7Stuttgart167543025526
8Borussia DortmundDortmund167453025525
9Werder Bremen167452829-125
10Wolfsburg167363328524
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach167362521424
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin164571421-717
13Augsburg164481733-1616
14St Pauli1642101220-814
15Hoffenheim163582029-914
16Heidenheim1641112033-1313
17Holstein Kiel1622122141-208
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1613121337-246
> Bundesliga Full Table


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