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Bundesliga | Gameweek 14
Dec 14, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
Bayern logo

Mainz
2 - 1
Bayern

Jae-sung (41', 60')
Kohr (49'), Mwene (90'), Amiri (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sane (87')
Kimmich (78'), Laimer (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Wolfsburg 4-3 Mainz
Sunday, December 8 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Shakhtar 1-5 Bayern
Tuesday, December 10 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Mainz 05 1-3 Bayern Munich

Bayern have been rampant in front of goal all season, and it is plausible that they could score multiple times on Saturday. However, given the injuries in defence and to Neuer, Mainz will likely have opportunities of their own, and they may at least prevent the visitors from keeping a clean sheet. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 13.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.47%) and 1-3 (7.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.14%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
13.87% (0.632 0.63) 16.59% (0.238 0.24) 69.53% (-0.871 -0.87)
Both teams to score 61.38% (0.986 0.99)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.04% (0.383 0.38)28.95% (-0.386 -0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
50.08% (0.468 0.47)49.92% (-0.471 -0.47)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.38% (1.122 1.12)33.62% (-1.123 -1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.73% (1.204 1.2)70.26% (-1.206 -1.21)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.46% (-0.079000000000008 -0.08)7.53% (0.077100000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.99% (-0.202 -0.2)27.01% (0.2 0.2)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 13.87%
    Bayern Munich 69.53%
    Draw 16.59%
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.89% (0.133 0.13)
1-0 @ 2.76% (0.023 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.83% (0.108 0.11)
2-0 @ 1.51% (0.057 0.06)
3-1 @ 1.41% (0.089 0.09)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 13.87%
1-1 @ 7.14% (0.03 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.03% (0.152 0.15)
0-0 @ 2.53% (-0.058 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.58% (0.088 0.09)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 16.59%
1-2 @ 9.23% (0.0010000000000012 0)
0-2 @ 8.47% (-0.261 -0.26)
1-3 @ 7.96% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-3 @ 7.3% (-0.256 -0.26)
0-1 @ 6.55% (-0.176 -0.18)
1-4 @ 5.14% (-0.041 -0.04)
0-4 @ 4.72% (-0.185 -0.19)
2-3 @ 4.34% (0.114 0.11)
2-4 @ 2.8% (0.062 0.06)
1-5 @ 2.66% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-5 @ 2.44% (-0.106 -0.11)
2-5 @ 1.45% (0.027 0.03)
1-6 @ 1.15% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-6 @ 1.05% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-4 @ 1.02% (0.053 0.05)
Other @ 3.27%
Total : 69.53%

How you voted: Mainz vs Bayern

Mainz 05
17.5%
Draw
6.8%
Bayern Munich
75.7%
103
Head to Head
Oct 30, 2024 7.45pm
Second Round
Mainz
0-4
Bayern

Kohr (20'), Nebel (45+3'), Jenz (45+3'), Nebel (64')
Musiala (2', 37', 45+4'), Sane (45+1')
Laimer (43')
Mar 9, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 25
Bayern
8-1
Mainz
Kane (13', 45+7', 70'), Goretzka (19', 90+2'), Muller (47'), Musiala (61'), Gnabry (66')
Laimer (5')
Amiri (31')
Widmer (84')
Oct 21, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 8
Mainz
1-3
Bayern
Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')
Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 29
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Mane (29')
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern17133153134042
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen17115141231838
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt17103440241633
4RB Leipzig179352924530
5Stuttgart178543226629
6Mainz 05Mainz178453021928
7Wolfsburg178363829927
8Freiburg178362530-527
9Werder Bremen177553132-126
10Borussia DortmundDortmund177463229325
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach177372626024
12Augsburg175481933-1419
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin174581423-917
14St Pauli1742111221-914
15Heidenheim1742112336-1314
16Hoffenheim173592034-1414
17Holstein Kiel1732122543-1811
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1723121437-239


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