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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 35.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.89%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
Result | ||
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen |
40.53% ( -0.43) | 23.53% ( 0.06) | 35.94% ( 0.37) |
Both teams to score 63.12% ( -0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.33% ( -0.23) | 38.66% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.03% ( -0.25) | 60.97% ( 0.24) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.55% ( -0.29) | 19.45% ( 0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.71% ( -0.48) | 51.29% ( 0.48) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.35% ( 0.09) | 21.64% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.23% ( 0.13) | 54.77% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen |
2-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.64% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.29% Total : 40.53% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.21% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 8.07% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 3.37% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.29% ( 0) 0-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.67% Total : 35.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |